Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 23.369595 25.423825 27.637834 30.211959 33.135768 36.369225 40.237321
2026-02-01 20.153316 22.986565 26.254791 30.346194 35.392329 41.495382 49.566503
2026-02-08 17.834735 21.080019 25.023846 30.260632 37.176346 46.216778 59.323548
2026-02-15 16.098866 19.568150 23.962943 30.087689 38.659333 50.660724 69.608036
2026-02-22 14.745876 18.336318 23.042825 29.875305 39.931905 54.909251 80.528513
2026-03-01 13.710961 17.385295 22.346515 29.813531 41.318350 59.471987 93.053705
2026-03-08 12.849960 16.570282 21.724846 29.735453 42.601081 64.029160 106.811072
2026-03-15 12.413643 16.291799 21.813120 30.693879 45.622287 72.053415 129.806513
2026-03-22 11.699557 15.550763 21.143161 30.369728 46.422143 76.224193 146.281751
2026-03-29 11.140223 14.988022 20.682719 30.313746 47.651721 81.432260 167.231406
2026-04-05 10.720005 14.597128 20.445098 30.586234 49.495470 88.264082 195.499182
2026-04-12 10.242093 14.084128 19.970266 30.392709 50.413313 93.316576 221.514339
2026-04-19 9.797949 13.606080 19.532217 30.249725 51.477595 99.138802 254.174314
2026-04-26 9.412579 13.196849 19.177111 30.222371 52.787273 105.955754 295.585153
2026-05-03 9.036721 12.779645 18.777395 30.069979 53.812727 112.384042 341.378493
2026-05-10 8.684196 12.378811 18.375621 29.870584 54.704568 118.750227 393.624447
2026-05-17 8.356463 11.999440 17.983491 29.648725 55.511217 125.157684 453.987379
2026-05-24 8.079362 11.687537 17.686359 29.582744 56.672244 133.034948 533.977030
2026-05-31 7.820535 11.391905 17.397513 29.503479 57.790491 141.210861 630.609275
2026-06-07 7.731232 11.373791 17.599826 30.450464 61.639242 160.127453 852.738830
2026-06-14 7.466993 11.045590 17.218218 30.129539 62.153670 167.431228 998.109649
2026-06-21 7.256055 10.798641 16.970842 30.074023 63.378143 178.049880 1220.301933
2026-06-28 7.100538 10.639658 16.876514 30.343420 65.556313 193.667286 1591.710137